More on unemployement

Two Finanicial Mail pieces this week look at unemployement and the credit crisis. The figures coming through in the news have been a wake up call, especially the estimate that 18 - 30million could lose their jobs in the duration of the crisis. Amidst these sobering figures, unemployment becomes a political issue as South Africa approaches an election in a few months time, and political parties aim to make promises around job creation. There is likely to be intense public scrutiny of top leadership's salaries, as there staff is laid off in the thousands. All factors to watch over the next few months, and which are likely to become issues in my job, the business of communicating.

Numbers
Global jobs in numbers
By Razina Munshi

18m-30m people could lose their jobs due to the global credit crisis, says the International Labour Organisation's (ILO) annual global employment trends report released last week.

51m or 7,1% globally would be affected if world economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Based on November 2008 forecasts, an unemployment rate of 6,1% was expected. The ILO measured unemployment by those without a job, but looking for one.

3bn people worldwide were employed in 2008 - up about 1,3% over 2007. This is lower than the annual average growth rate of 1,6% during the past 10 years.

7,9% is the registered unemployment rate in sub-Saharan Africa. North Africa, with an unemployment rate of 10,3%, is the highest in the world.

5% economic growth is forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in 2009. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the region is in a less precarious position than the rest of the world because of its limited linkages with the global financial system.

0,5% The IMF's (adjusted) expectation of global economic growth in 2009 - down from 2,2% in November.

1,4bn people in developing countries are living in extreme poverty. 2,6bn consume less than US$2/day at 2005 prices.

200m more workers, mostly in developing economies, could be pushed into extreme poverty, if conditions persist.

Source: ILO and IMF


Dog
Unemployment
Jamie Carr

Those who struggled hard but failed to shed a tear in sympathy with the former big swingers of Lehman Brothers may now find it easier to get the water works flowing as the recession bites all across the real economy. Now it's not just the financial casino clowns who are heading for the elevators with the cardboard box of doom, and it's impossible to open a newspaper without reading of 10 000 jobs lost here, 5 000 there. Corporates are responding to an unprecedented drop-off in demand by cutting fast and cutting deep, and this in itself will drive demand ever lower.

SA has already suffered some cuts, but there could be many thousands more before the year is out. While political parties are putting the finishing touches to their job creation rhetoric in preparation for the election, the reality is going to be heading in exactly the opposite direction, and this may add spice to what is already a fiery political mix.

What government should be doing is racing to create the most enabling environment possible so business can bounce back as soon as possible, but sadly the compulsion to interfere may be too strong for our glorious leaders to resist.